Apr 15, 2021Liked by Strong Message Here - Substack

Great points. It feels like a groundswell of centrist support for Labour is definitely overdue, and was perhaps held back by Corbyn’s personality cult.

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It’s a joke to define seats held since 2010 as ‘blue wall’. The red wall Labour seats have been held since before the war and people vote Labour because their parents and grandparents did. The writer is delusional.

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Unfortunately for progressives, there are far more Labour seats with small majorities that are likely to fall to the Conservatives than vice versa, as Matthew Goodwin points out in his recent article.

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The first comment here is at the heart of the problem Labour face. Voters who lean left but felt they couldn't vote for Corbyn at the last election are the same who now blame those that did vote for Corbyn's Labour, as the reason the Tories won by so much. The reality is, it was those who were blinded by anti-corbynism who gave the super majority to Boris, not those who actually voted Labour.

A majority of voters in the UK are left leaning and vote for left leaning parties. All we need to do to win is realise we need to unite under one party, the way the right has. Or we can keep blaming Corbyn, who we could have all voted for, but instead decided to cut off our noses to spite our faces instead.

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Nice analysis but deeply frustrating that you have failed to consider how the LDs can contribute to the defeat of the Conservatives. This is a Labour-only analysis and as such is badly flawed.

Your own numbers from the 2019 GE shows that the LDs are best placed to defeat the Tories in 12 of these Blue Wall seats, including mine own of Hitchin and Harpenden.

In these seats I submit that the LDs are the more credible challenger to the Tories and that a Progressive Alliance, with Labour and the LDs standing aside for the better-placed challenger, would have the best odds of success in defeating the Tories.

Take a look at this analysis by Compass.


I’ve like to see your updated analysis once you have re-run it to consider a Progressive Alliance scenario.



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